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PMI Improving...we tend to agree

Recent US PMI data is a little divergent depending on which survey you focus on (ISM or S&P).

Here is an interesting comment from ABN Amro that basically concludes that we are probably in for a strengthening of the manufacturing sector.

We tend to agree - but also nuance this picture with our strictly anecdotal observations that it also depends very heavily on the vertical.

There are several manufacturing vertical that remain under pressure as a result the average consumer is feeling (think things like consumer durables) and others that are driven by secular tail-winds (think things like energy transition-related and defence).

While ABN's comment doesn't reference this, we also tend to think that relying on the GVA as an indication of the importance for the manufacturing industry belies the true impact. For instance, in 2022, Manufacturing contributed $2.3 trillion to U.S. GDP amounting to 11.4 % of total U.S. GDP, measured in chained 2012 dollars. Including direct and indirect (i.e., purchases from other industries) value added, manufacturing contributed an estimated 24 % of GDP.

This will be interesting to track going forward.

ABN's note is here:



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